If you’ve been wondering what 2024 would look like…
Well, so is everyone else. And I made some predictions for 2023 that were pretty accurate (5 out of 5 in my book) so this is my condensed take for what to expect in 2024:
- The market will start to stabilize as soon as Q1. Pandemic years have caused some crazy buyer behaviors, skyrocketing certain industries (home delivery, ecommerce) and tanking local ones (mom and pop shops, events). A year after the lockdowns are over, we’re settling in usual times and traditional spending habits.
- Corporate budgets will start to pour in again. What we saw in year 1 of recession was a tight down of budgets for 6-7 months while businesses were trying to gauge the direction. 2023 was ruthless for too many people and organizations. After all these changes (between layoffs, bankruptcies, automation baked in, pricing restructuring), most businesses have found a framework to survive in its current form – and have been dragging for a while. Reserved budgets will start to unlock and new channels will need to be explored.
- SEO taking the reigns in 2024. This one is both bold and universally true, here’s why. SEO dying is just like “email is dying” (still a king and top ROI source) or “PHP is dying” (#1 language by web use). Search isn’t going anywhere, be it Google or YouTube (same parent company). Chat bots are usable in certain cases, but commercial and transactional terms are in authority sites (the top 5 sites you use) or simply Google search. We see traffic peaks everywhere and DevriX has been growing SEO revenue consistently since August with several more pitches in!
- Ecommerce will continue to grow with a predictable pace. The boom in 2021 and 2022 just broke all forecast-o-meters and 2023 was a down year. But all in all, ecommerce retail revenue was up in 2023 despite everything (just doomed by fear and inflation). We saw less churn in December than usual and lower than ideal December sales, but sustainable enough to keep going in the future. In other words – the bump/peak was missing, but it’s followed by a scary dip in January while normalization is in place as we speak.
- AI playbooks will be getting more usable. 2023 was all about the hype of “Tool X can do something”, and there was the proof of concept – but without the practical value. Cold AI email or chatbots existed, but the quality was atrocious. I see more and more practical cases of prompts that yield more valuable results and take multiple steps to solve a problem, getting closer to an actual assistant, saving more time, producing slightly better quality, fewer hallucinations for certain commands. This would balance out the need for more resources, better efficiency, and better market terms – companies can become more efficient, make more money, keep growing salaries without bidding for people that don’t exist.
Now the sales cycles are still slower – but we RFPs coming in and sales calls held and stores onboarded and investor sheets rolling both on Jan 1st and Jan 2nd this year!
So January is bound to start stronger as leaky pockets in 2023 don’t allow for the post-holiday chillax that corporations enjoyed previously.
Market-wise, we saw S&P 500 growing 25% last year (after the morbid turn in 2022) and the year of efficiency not over as productivity takes another turn (Google may part ways with 30K people replaced by AI).
I still stumble upon hate articles against RTO, but the reality is – RTO is here, most folks are back at the office anyway, and remote work won’t disappear either – just as I was running 2 small remote companies 12 years ago successfully, the model works for some industries, sizes, stages but not most of them.
The macro situation in Ukraine and Israel is really troubling and I wholeheartedly pray it’s over soon. Unfortunately, it feels like a political drag that shifts some political relationships in-between – and US elections are coming later this year.
Final thoughts – I’ll probably be slowing down on social for a couple of months while catching up on strategy and content in the interim. I’ll do a January purge of the email list for inactive readers – so don’t mind me sending an email or two to check in and see if you’re still a reader (that’s why replies help so much here).
Here’s to a better 2024 ahead – put a prayer in and map out your Q1 strategy this week!
Yours,
Mario
My Take
Exploring the WordPress Universe of Podcasts – Are you a WordPress enthusiast, developer, or website owner looking for valuable insights, tips, and the latest updates on everything WordPress? If so, plug in your earphones, grab your favorite beverage, and let’s dive into the world of WordPress podcasts, including pieces that I guest in!
DevriX 2023 in Review – For us in DevriX, 2023 has been a blast! It was so full of celebrations, hard work and delightful business occasions that we didn’t realize how fast it flew by. Here are some stats that showcase how much we’ve done for both our clients and the constant innovation of WordPress’ open source & community.
WP-Tonic: The best interviews for WordPress – Continuing the topic of the contribution for WordPress’ open source and marketing community, here’s one of the best interviews we’ve done with WP Tonic regarding WordPress & Tech. If you’re interested in more, have a look at the other insightful and actionable podcasts listed.
Newsletter Recommendations
Stacked Marketer – One of my go-to newsletters and a business that we’ve worked with a while ago on the DevriX front. It is loved by marketers who get hands-on with campaigns, who need to stay up-to-date with frequently changing platforms., who need to get an edge, and who need to achieve outsized results with limited resources, aka performance-focused marketers.
The Average Joe – Market trends & insights that are simple, concise, and impactful. This newsletter stands out to me due to the 200,000+ audience that go through market trends and ideas together.
Boldpush – А special newsletter for those interested in marketing intelligence and strategy to the most ambitious brands. Props to Julius Solaris for creating one of my top newsletter reads for GTM strategies and actionable content.
Morning Brew – Аn absolute classic, the Morning Brew delivers top news from a business-minded angle, and deliver it in a short, easy-to-read, actionable, and entertaining way.
Business Strategy
Barclays Downgrades Apple – Apple’s stock fell 3% following a downgrade by Barclays, citing concerns about weak demand for Apple products, from iPhones to Macs, into 2024. The downgrade reflects broader issues including a demand slowdown, competition from Huawei in China, and scrutiny over Apple’s app store practices, with Barclays lowering its price target for Apple’s stock.
OpenAI 1.6 Billion Valuation – OpenAI, despite leadership changes, is experiencing rapid revenue growth, with projections reaching $5 billion by 2024. This growth, driven largely by the adoption of ChatGPT and enterprise AI solutions, places OpenAI in a strong market position despite increasing competition in the AI industry.
X Valuation Cut- Fidelity has significantly devalued its shares in X Holdings, formerly known as Twitter, estimating them to be 71.5% less valuable than at purchase. This markdown, including a 10.7% reduction in November, occurred amid controversial actions by owner Elon Musk, contrasting with the rising stock values of similar companies like Meta and Snap.
Nvidia New Product – Nvidia has launched a modified version of its GTX 4090 D graphics chip in China, featuring approximately 10% fewer processing cores to comply with U.S. export controls. This China-specific version is part of Nvidia’s strategy to adhere to U.S. regulations that aim to limit China’s advancement in artificial intelligence, while still catering to the Chinese market within those constraints.
Huawei Revenue rises – Huawei Technologies expects to report a revenue of over 700 billion yuan ($100 Billion) for 2023, indicating a 9% growth from the previous year. This growth signifies Huawei’s recovery following the impact of U.S. sanctions, with significant progress in its device business, including a resurgence in the high-end smartphone market.
Global News
The stock market had quite a profitable year. AI tech companies were evidently in the center of it all, as industry advancements pushed the stocks up. Even crypto stocks performed much higher, increasing +417%.
- S&P 500: +25%
- DOW: +14%
- NASDAQ: +44%
Mortgage rates came down across all terms from a week ago, according to rate data compiled by Bankrate. Rates for 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed, 5/1 ARMs and jumbo loans all moved lower.
- 30-year mortgage rate: 7.01%(-0.02)
- 15-year mortgage rate: 6.41%(-0.10)
Investor optimism that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates is breathing new life into the market for junk debt, providing timely relief to the lowest-rated companies and likely capping the rate of defaults in 2024.
As the U.S. central bank started to raise rates in 2022 and worries about defaults grew, companies rated below investment grade saw tepid demand from investors for their loans and bonds.
This week’s news issue disaster warnings and show the transfer of power in Denmark’s royalty.
- Japan has issued a tsunami warning after a series of strong earthquakes.
- Queen Margrethe of Denmark says she will abdicate her role after serving 52 years on the throne, paving the way for her son to lead the monarchy.
- Republican House committees request “documents and communications” regarding Hunter Biden from the White House and his lawyers as part of their impeachment inquiry.
Investing Updates
- Sessions – backed by Earlybird, the VC who supported UiPath from its early days, aims to challenge the global video conferencing market.
- Bright Spaces – backed by Axeleo Capital, PiLabs, Sparking Capital, Fortech Investments, Hellen’s Rock and Clearance Capital.
- Blindspot– links over a million global digital billboards, simplifying advertising for diverse clients like TikTok, Netflix, and Rihanna.
Note: Got a round going that you want to feature – your own business or a portfolio company? Get in touch.
Now let’s have a look at the latest top Flippa offers:
News & Entertainment Blog – Generating income through selling sponsored articles, with 30K quality backlinks and 15K social media followers.
- Monthly Profit: $3.9K
- Annual Revenue: $56.7K
- Authority Score: 26
Workflow Management SaaS – This innovative SaaS empowers small to medium businesses by facilitating the implementation of standard operating procedures. With a customer base of over 500 clients.
- Monthly Profit: $6.7K
- Profit Margin: 62%
- Age: 5 years
Homeschooling Educational Site – Offering resources for teachers and parents, with a 76% profit margin, high domain authority and quality backlinks.
- Monthly Profit: $4K
- Monthly Page Views: 101.2K
- Age: 4 years
Need my Help?
I’m involved with a number of initiatives – here’s what I can do to help you:
Scalable and secure WordPress? DevriX provides WordPress retainers to SMEs, publishers, eCommerce, SaaS, and more. Our plans start from $1,200/mo to $40K/mo for anything from support through engineering, CRO, performance, security, to fractional CXO services and managing the data stacks of large corps.
Running on Shopify? Set up Rush now and increase your revenue with post-purchase orders automatically!
Want to scale and optimize your business? Growth Shuttle offers personalized advisory plans starting at $600/hr. Tap into my personal pool of business know-how and my data warehouse of industry data.
Want access to my blueprints/books and a weekly Slack planning session? Join my Community and grab my Entrepreneurship book.
Looking to start a US company? Check out doola and their “Business in a Box” model. Suitable for both foreigners and US citizens and both for residents and non-residents.
Have you tried buying and selling digital property? Have a look at Flippa’s marketplace. They offer a vast variety of online businesses for any buyer’s interests. Or if you’re ready for an exit, Flippa provides you with the necessary tools to list your business and close the deal.
Looking for investment opportunities? Check out SeedBlink and use Nimity to manage it.
Eager to incorporate my recommended solutions? Track my angel investments. Sharing, applying for open roles, or writing reviews helps a ton. And anything else I try to publish on my blog and my courses here!