Consumer behavior shifts – moving back to 2022 or 2019?

Instead of bridging the gap, the mixed messaging of consumer behaviors is so contrasting it truly resembles lunacy at this point.

• The summer started slower than usual – lower digital traffic, work slowdown etc in June, similar to all forms of seasonality from 2010 to 2019
• European travel in Q1 marked a 32% increase compared to last year, and about 95% of the travel dynamics pre-pandemic (according to the European Commission).
• Looking into local tourism in Southeastern Europe, however, it’s at the worst levels for at least a decade (Bulgaria/Greece practical observations + 1:1 talks with 20+ SMB owners and managers working the summer season)
• Shopping behavior seems to be up – if you count the Shopify quarterly reports and the massive Amazon Prime Day (about 25% better than last year)
• On the other hand, American credit card debt reached record high numbers this summer, and Gen Z are in trouble
• Work is on the rise throughout most of August. Despite some troubling signals and extra layoffs end of July, we see increased demands in the digital ecosystem across most partners we work with internally.

The stock market had a strong 6 months and is down again right now, considering the rising treasury bonds. China’s economy is struggling – which appeared as a thumbs up to the Western world, however also directly tied to any manufacturing or production (therefore not as bright as it appeared early on.)

And at the same time, nearly 70% of National Association for Business Economics economists expect a soft landing.

Any predictions would be a wild card at this point.

I’ve included some of the latest podcasts I appeared on in the “My Take” section below 👇 (it’s a long newsletter if you’re missing on the macro news!) 

And I’m back on the field and gathering opinions the old-school way when stats don’t work. In statistics, a sample size of 30 is often considered an okay sample size, despite being disproven multiple times. But with ~9,000 subscribers receiving this newsletter, we can quickly pull a status poll on the macroeconomy and get some insights rolling for the next editon.

What is your readout on the economy over the past 3 months? Is it recovering where you live or worsening up? What is the word on the street? A quick paragraph on that would be truly insightful – hit Reply and let me know.

Yours,
Mario

✍️ The Power of Post-Purchase Automation –  I had a great talk with Steve Hutt in the latest episode of the Ecommerce Fastlane podcast regarding post-purchase automation with Rush App. If you’re interested to understand the importance of integrating recommended products and upsells to generate additional revenue and boost customer loyalty, have a listen!

✍️ Tech, Time, and Transformation – Failure is part of an entrepreneur’s life. A master has failed more times than an apprentice has tried. All parts of a truly insightful conversation I had with Rebecca J. White, PhD on the most recent episode of En Factor Podcast. Join us as we explore many topics in the lives of aspiring entrepreneurs.

✍️ Structure Your Startup as You Grow – Every third additional hire to your team will likely cause inefficiency or communication overhead. It’s similar to Bezos’ “never schedule a meeting where two pizzas can’t feed the group of attendees. This week we look at how to structure a startup as it scales. A paramount business pain for growing companies.

✍️ Will AI Kill IT/Marketing Jobs – In recent times, the question of whether Artificial Intelligence will replace human jobs, particularly in Information Technology and Marketing, has been a hot topic of discussion. One could argue that AI, at its best, is a tool that complements human capabilities rather than replacing them entirely.

📄Microsoft selling gaming rights for UK bid approval – Microsoft is restructuring its proposed $68.7 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard by transferring cloud gaming rights for Activision Blizzard’s current and new games to Ubisoft, in an effort to appease UK regulators concerned about the impact of the deal on cloud gaming competition. The restructured deal has triggered a new regulatory investigation in the UK, which could last until October 18th and will prohibit Microsoft from exclusively releasing or controlling the licensing terms of Activision Blizzard games on Xbox Cloud Gaming.

📄Wallmart Connect sales 36% up – Walmart Connect, the advertising unit of Walmart, reported a 36% year-over-year increase in ad sales for the second quarter of fiscal 2024, with its global ad business and Sam’s Club brand also seeing significant growth. The surge in ad sales was attributed to strong demand for sponsored product ads, new in-store marketing channels such as sampling stations and QR codes, and a 60% increase in the number of advertisers using Walmart’s ad network, offering brands better insights into customer journeys and in-store sales attribution.

📄More sites with Amazon-sponsored products – Amazon is expanding its Sponsored Products ads to appear on premium apps and websites like Pinterest and BuzzFeed. These ads, improved with machine learning and expanded targeting, will automatically show up based on relevance and will link back to Amazon’s product page, facilitating easy browsing to purchasing transitions for customers.

📄First OpenAI acquisition – OpenAI has acquired the team at Global Illumination, a company known for leveraging AI to create creative tools and digital experiences, founded by former contributors to Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Google, Pixar, and Riot Games, who have now joined OpenAI to work on core products like ChatGPT.

📄ТikTok releases ad tips – TikTok has released a guide detailing the basics of successful in-app ad campaigns, including identifying your unique selling point (USP), creating videos around it, and optimizing your presentation for the platform. The guide provides insights into how to incorporate these elements into your TikTok clips, explains different ad options available, and is a useful resource for marketers looking to incorporate TikTok into their holiday marketing strategies.

📈 The yield on 10 and 30-year US Treasuries are at their highest since 2007 and the 2-year treasury is back above 5%. This has improved the economic growth outlook due to resilient data and may play a role in policies in the near future.

• S&P: 4,387 (-0.28%)

📈 Average mortgage rates for various types of loans increased compared to the previous week, according to data from Bankrate. Following a pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in June, they resumed increases in July, but housing economists predict mortgage rates will trend down as the Federal Open Market Committee signals the peak of this cycle, reducing uncertainty and narrowing the spread of mortgage rates relative to Treasury benchmarks

• 30-year mortgage rate: 7.62% (+0.11%)
• 15-year mortgage rate: 6.83% (+0.11%)

📈 Confidence is growing that the Federal Reserve will achieve a soft landing for the economy, according to a survey from the National Association for Business Economics.

• Nearly 70% of economists were at least somewhat optimistic the Fed can bring inflation down to its 2% target without spurring a recession
• Nearly three in four respondents said current monetary policy is about right, up from nearly 60% in the March survey.
• Some 56% say it takes a year to 18 months for changes in monetary policy to impact the economy.
• Almost three-fourths of respondents see inflation above 3% by the end of the year.

📰 This week we see progression in both union efforts and medical advancement. 

• FDA approves the first vaccine to protect newborns from RSV. It’ll be given to mothers late in their pregnancies
• Tropical Storm Harold makes landfall in southern Texas, the first to come ashore in the US this Atlantic hurricane season
• The Teamsters union votes overwhelmingly in favor of a contract with UPS, avoiding a potentially damaging strike

If you’re more interested in networking opportunities, you can visit ISTAcon in Sofia on October 12th. In any case, let’s have a look at this week’s offers:

• Swapp – to raise €2.35M to grow its flexible car subscription services in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. 

• Finqware– is securing €3M to automate European corporate financial operations fully.
• Bunnyshell– is raising up to €4M in Late Seed funding to grow its sales to Fortune 100 firms and beyond.

Note: Got a round going that you want to feature – your own business or a portfolio company? Get in touch.

Are you in Eastern Europe this September? Join me and other entrepreneurs in the first-ever Flippa meetup in Sofia, where we’ll be discussing selling an online business, acquiring, or simply what Flippa is all about. Pack your bags, it’s worth it. Have a look: 

• 1.4М User Gaming Forum – This seasoned 15-year-old business is a rocking gaming forum for the most popular online role-playing games. It proudly boasts over 13.8M yearly views, with an impressive 92% coming from organic and direct traffic.
  • Monthly Profit: $8K
  • Monthly Page Views: 1.1M
  • Email Subscribers: 1.3M
• Pet Gear FBA Store – An established business selling a range of pet products worldwide through diverse channels, with an annual profit of $252K. With an average product rating of 4.6 stars from thousands of reviews.
  • Monthly Profit: $5.7K
  • Average Order Value: $19
  • Age: 9 years
• Investing Website – This nine-year-old content site shares tips and news on global financial markets. It generates money through diverse revenue streams, with an annual revenue of $148K, a profit margin of 78% and an authority score of 29.
  • Monthly Profit: $9.5K
  • Monthly Page Views: 6.3K
  • Email Subscribers: 8K

I’m involved with a number of initiatives – here’s what I can do to help you:

🌐 Scalable and secure WordPress? DevriX provides WordPress retainers to SMEs, publishers, eCommerce, SaaS, and more. Our plans start from $1,200/mo to $40K/mo for anything from support through engineering, CRO, performance, security, to fractional CXO services and managing the data stacks of large corps.

🛒 Running on Shopify? Set up Rush now and increase your revenue with post-purchase orders automatically!

🚀 Want to scale and optimize your business? Growth Shuttle offers personalized advisory plans starting at $350/hr. Tap into my personal pool of business know-how and my data warehouse of industry data.

👥 Want access to my blueprints/books and a weekly Slack planning session? Join my Community and grab my Entrepreneurship book. 

💼  Looking for investment opportunities? Check out SeedBlink.

💡 Eager to incorporate my recommended solutions? Track my angel investments. Sharing, applying for open roles, or writing reviews helps a ton.  And anything else I try to publish on my blog and my courses here!

🔥 Need support turning strategy into measurable value and outcomes? Visit Value Creation Partner for tailored growth and value creation services.