It’s been an eventful few weeks – and by “eventful”, I refer to two live conferences, one on-site workshop, 5 podcasts for “MBA Disrupted” and the global economy, and a handful of follow-up on-site meetings.
My meetings are one of the data sources I use to gather market research. Providing a more comprehensive outlook depends on:
- Following public market data – stock analysis, PPI/CPI reviews, or macroeconomic market trends
- Following thought leaders (think of anyone from Ray Dalio to industry experts in different categories)
- Portfolio research – data points through DevriX and Growth Shuttle and our combined portfolio of clients
- Category segment research – Slack communities and professional forums/masterminds by people in different circles (from CEOs to VPs of marketing to though leaders to solopreneurs)
- News and other reads on what’s going on
- 1:1 qualitative conversations with people
So navigating that journey and summarizing data isn’t a singular event.
Coincidentally, here’s what the Fed posted on their website in their latest press release. Quoting the end of the intro:
“Households’ expectations for the stock market improved, reaching a three-year high. Households were also more optimistic about their financial situation a year from now.”
Considering the turbulence in the global economy – anywhere from withdrawal of VC funding through debt weight on businesses and individuals, record-high credit card debt, and supermarket inflation through the roof (far exceeding public numbers), the Federal Reserve continues to optimistically forecast and believe that everything is going as smoothly as it gets.
What kills the economy today can be summarized in a single word:
UNCERTAINTY
No business can ever survive (yet alone thrive) in an ever-changing environment. Right now uncertainty of future events leads to fear, which creates a level of scarcity, limited spend, and paranoia.
It’s not necessarily about lack of funds in the system. It’s lack of SPENDING that throws businesses off, breaking forecasts, and pushing emergency buttons across the board.
Do we know if the economy is getting back into a stable shape anytime soon? No.
What would inflation look like in the next 12 months? No idea.
Are there stable funding opportunities recovering anytime soon? Who knows.
Are safety budgets enough to withstand all that? Many have fallen already.
With demand generation channels failing – and the future of AI threatening humans (still ineffectively, though) – the fear of spending and the partial halt on the economy is shrinking businesses and restraining consumer spend dramatically.
Just like full-time stay-at-home was the norm in the first year of covid, and full-time on-site was the default way prior to that, we’re now navigating a middle ground – closer to on-site, with some flexibility.
And just like the massive boom of the economy made it through 2021, we’re now seeing a massive reset.
And in such contrast and explosive peaks, innovation is born.
Just like the web was made stronger, better, and more helpful after the dotcom boom.
And fintech arised from the 2008 recession.
And healthtech/biotech have been growing after, accelerated around the pandemic.
B2B SaaS is undergoing a massive change and AI transformations are about to happen – what we saw with the radio, the TV, computers, the Internet, smartphones, social networks.
It’s a revolution enough between where we were and what we can achieve. It’s not there yet – and it’s not going to wipe out humankind. But drastic shifts have been going on for 4 years now straight, and getting into a stable shape is bound to happen sooner than later.
Yours,
Mario
My Take
5 Steps for Evaluating The Worth of an Idea – Discover how to validate your business idea by exploring market size, competition, and buyer personas. Learn key steps to ensure your idea has real potential!
13 Marketing & Branding Secrets – For 20+ years, I’ve analyzed the greatest marketers from Seth Godin & Steve Jobs to Gary Vee, Alex Hormozi & Mr. Beast. Here are 13 marketing & branding secrets that have made me millions.
Newsletter Recommendations
Stacked Marketer – One of my go-to newsletters and a business that we’ve worked with a while ago on the DevriX front. It is loved by marketers who get hands-on with campaigns, who need to stay up-to-date with frequently changing platforms., who need to get an edge, and who need to achieve outsized results with limited resources, aka performance-focused marketers.
Boldpush – А special newsletter for those interested in marketing intelligence and strategy to the most ambitious brands. Props to Julius Solaris for creating one of my top newsletter reads for GTM strategies and actionable content.
Business Strategy
ChatGPT coming to iPhones – Apple is to boost its Siri voice assistant and operating systems with OpenAI’s ChatGPT as it seeks to catch up in the AI race. The iPhone maker announced the Siri makeover along with a number of other new features at its annual developers show on Monday. It is part of a new personalised AI system – called “Apple Intelligence” – that aims to offer users a way to navigate Apple devices more easily.
Elon Musk threatens to ban iPhones – In a post to X Monday, the Tesla chief executive said he would ban Apple devices at his companies — which include SpaceX and X, among others — if the iPhone maker went ahead with its AI plans announced Monday. If Apple “integrates OpenAI at the (operating system) level,” Musk said that would constitute “an unacceptable security violation.”
Google Ads new design – Google Ads is finalizing the rollout of its new design to all markets starting Aug. 30, retiring the old interface for desktop users. First launched in 2023, the new Google Ads design overhauls how the product is organized, aiming to make tools and features easier to find while retaining existing functionality.
European stocks fall after elections –European stocks fell as traders reacted to initial results from the EU vote and French President Emmanuel Macron’s shock call for parliamentary elections. The French CAC 40 was down 1.4%, with bank shares falling sharply.
Google launches TV ads network –Google is launching a new advertising network that serves targeted ads to Google TV-powered streaming boxes and smart TVs. The ads service, known as the Google TV network, lets advertisers place unskippable in-stream ad spots across more than 125 live channels — many that are FAST, or free ad-supported streaming TV channels that Google’s been hell-bent on getting users to notice.
Global News
Bitcoin (BTCUSD), whose best years in 2013 and 2017 delivered gains of more than 5,000% and 1,000%, has lost near 5% in the last five days as some worry the Fed will hint of higher-for-longer interest rates. Still, the crypto is up near 60% so far in 2024.
- S&P 500: $5,375(+0.27%)
Mortgage interest rates trended lower across all terms from a week ago, according to data collected by Bankrate. Rates for 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed, 5/1 ARMs and jumbo loans all receded.
“Markets are assuming that the Fed will cut the overnight rate only one time during the rest of 2024,” says Dick Lepre of RealFinity. “Rates will be flat for the rest of 2024.”
- 30-year mortgage rate: 7.12%(-0.06)
- 15-year mortgage rate: 6.62%(-0.07)
After getting its preferred inflation gauge down from over 7% in June 2022 — its highest level since the early 1980s — to its current reading of 2.7%, you’d think central bankers would be breathing a sigh of relief.
And yet, they’re likely doing anything but that at their June two-day monetary policy meeting, which kicks off on Tuesday. Officials are all but certain to leave rates unchanged regardless of the forthcoming May Consumer Price Index report set to be released Wednesday at 8:30 am ET, just hours before the Fed’s decision is announced.
Investing Updates
- Fleming – raising €700,000 to provide smart financial & banking solutions for healthcare professionals.
- Hunch – raising €1,25M to increase sales through automated marketing & AI. Backed by Catalyst Romania, Euroventures.
- Mindgram – raising €1,75M to support mental health & well-being in the workplace. Backed by Credo, Portfolion & others.
Note: Got a round going that you want to feature – your own business or a portfolio company? Get in touch.
Now let’s have a look at the latest top Flippa offers
Media Publishing Service – This service business provides media publishing through 15 international publishers.
- Monthly profit: $89,692
- Profit margin: 45%
- Business age: 11 years
Restaurant & Hospitality CRM SaaS – This SaaS business offers CRM services for over 1500 active restaurant & hospitality clients. This business helps businesses implement oracle-based technologies.
- Monthly revenue: $63,149
- Domain authority score: 43
- Business age: 9 years
B2B SaaS 4-App Portfolio – This app-based business consists of a portfolio of four apps in the printing and admin niche.
- Monthly profit: $31,538
- Monthly downloads: 41,250
- Business age: 6 years
Need my Help?
I’m involved with a number of initiatives – here’s what I can do to help you:
Scalable and secure WordPress? DevriX provides WordPress retainers to SMEs, publishers, eCommerce, SaaS, and more. Our plans start from $1,200/mo to $40K/mo for anything from support through engineering, CRO, performance, security, to fractional CXO services and managing the data stacks of large corps.
Want to scale and optimize your business? Growth Shuttle offers personalized advisory plans starting at $600/hr. Tap into my personal pool of business know-how and my data warehouse of industry data.
Want access to my blueprints/books and a weekly Slack planning session? Join my Community and grab my Entrepreneurship book.
Looking to start a US company? Check out doola and their “Business in a Box” model. Suitable for both foreigners and US citizens and both for residents and non-residents.
Have you tried buying and selling digital property? Have a look at Flippa’s marketplace. They offer a vast variety of online businesses for any buyer’s interests. Or if you’re ready for an exit, Flippa provides you with the necessary tools to list your business and close the deal.
Looking for investment opportunities? Check out SeedBlink and use Nimity to manage it.
Eager to incorporate my recommended solutions? Track my angel investments. Sharing, applying for open roles, or writing reviews helps a ton. And anything else I try to publish on my blog and my courses here!
